10 years are passed since when, in December 2015, the city of Paris hosted the twenty-first Conference of the Parties (COP21) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. A historic event, from which the Paris Agreement, the first global climate pact signed by almost every country in the world
Significant progress has been made since then, but we are Still far away from achieving the objectives set 10 years ago.
What results did COP21 bring and what still needs to be done to achieve the planned objectives? What to expect from COP30 in Brazil 10 years after the Paris Agreements?
Let's find out together!
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COP21 in Paris: the turning point in climate diplomacy
The COP21 in Paris was attended 195 States and numerous international organizations, with the common goal of achieving a global and binding agreement to deal with the climate emergency. On December 12, after two weeks of intense negotiations, theParis Agreement, a historic agreement that marked a turning point in global climate governance.
The agreement commits the parties to:
- Keep theGlobal temperature rise well below 2 °C compared to pre-industrial levels;
- continue efforts to Limit it to 1.5 °C;
- Reach the climate neutrality in the second half of the century.
Another central element is the obligation for the signatory countries to submit, update and periodically reinforce their nationally determined contributions, that is, the Emission Reduction Plans (NDC). The Paris Agreement also provides financial support mechanisms and technological, especially in favor of Developing countries, to promote a just transition to low-emission economic models.
To enter into force, the agreement required the ratification of at least 55 Countries representing at least the 55% of global emissions, a threshold exceeded in the fall of 2016, also thanks to the ratification of the main emitters such as China, the United States, the European Union, India, Brazil and Japan. The formal signing took place on April 22, 2016 in New York, in the presence of 177 Countries, including Italy.
However, COP21 was not an isolated event, but the result of a political, scientific and also cultural journey, marked by a growing awareness global climate emergency.
A few months earlier, in fact, it was published, in June 2015, theEncyclical 'Laudato Si' of Pope Francis who made a significant contribution to this climate. In the text, the Pontiff launched a strong appeal to “care for our common home”, inviting the whole of humanity to reconsider its economic, social and cultural models in the light of the ecological crisis.
With accessible language, the encyclical condemns the devastating effects of human activity on the environment, collective responsibility for the climate crisis and the urgency of an 'ecological conversion' that embraces social justice, intergenerational equity and sustainability. The Pope's intervention had a global echo, helping to influence public debate and to strengthen the consensus aroundThe importance of a climate agreement ambitious.
COP21 was therefore part of a context of profound mobilization which has helped to put pressure on policymakers.
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The Paris Agreement 10 years later: what are the results?
In a global context that is still uncertain, the action of some international powers begins to show concrete signs of change.
The European Union, one of the main actors for the promotion of a sustainable development, has chosen to face this responsibility with an ambitious plan, the European Green Deal.
This strategy aims to:
- Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels;
- Reach the climate neutrality by 2050;
- Plant 3 billion new trees by 2030.
The European Union has long since embarked on a path of reducing emissions, achieving declines of 31% in 2020 and 37% in 2023. Despite these advances, achieving the 55% reduction goal set by the Green Deal requires a strong acceleration.
Also on the energy production front, Europe is making important progress. In 2024, almost half of the electricity produced on the continent comes from Renewable sources. Leading this transition are in particular wind and hydroelectric, which together represent about two-thirds of total renewable production.
On the Asian front, it is the China to play a key role. The world's leading emitter of greenhouse gases, the country is investing massively in the energy transition. In 2024, China produced 48.4% of the world's photovoltaic energy and 42.2% of the planet's wind energy.
These numbers are important and confirm the centrality of the Asian giant in the climate challenge. According to official plans, Chinese emissions are expected to peak by 2030, and then reach climate neutrality by 2060.
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Climate change accelerates: the Paris objectives are still a long way off
Despite the efforts made and the formal commitments made over the last decade, the signals sent to us by the planet remain worrying. The Is climate change accelerating and we are still far from achieving the objectives set in 2015 with the Paris Agreement.
The 2024 It was theHottest year on record globally, with an average temperature that has exceeded the threshold of for the first time +1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels, the minimum threshold set by the Paris agreement.
Meanwhile, extreme weather events are intensifying.
In 2024, floods in Europe caused more than 18 billion euros in damages and 335 victims, while the south-east of the continent recorded the longest heat wave ever observed. On the 97 days of summer, well 43 have exceeded the thermal stress thresholds. The impacts on human health, according to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), could cause up to 30,000 dead a year in Europe if the 1.5°C threshold is permanently exceeded.
Even on a political level, the situation is complicated. At the beginning of 2025, the 95% Some of the countries that signed the Paris Agreement have not yet presented the new Emission Reduction Plans (NDCs) for 2035. Among those absent are major global emitters such as China, European Union and India, which together represent about 83% of global emissions and almost 80% of world GDP.
In the case of European Union, the difficulty is mainly political since find a common understanding between 27 countries with different and complex priorities and levels of development. The current Green Deal foresees a 55% reduction in emissions by 2030, but there is no clear vision beyond that deadline. There has been talk of a goal of -90% by 2040, but the proposal was greeted with skepticism by some member states such as Poland.
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COP 30 in Belém, Brazil: what to expect
Brazil's role in the global geopolitical context
In November 2025, exactly 10 years after the Paris Agreement, it will be held in Brazil the 30th Conference of the Parties on climate (COP30). It will be a conference with a strong symbolic and strategic value as it will take place in Belém, in Heart of the Amazon, one of the most fragile and crucial regions for the planet's climate balance.
After the last editions held in countries with economies based on oil extraction, for the first time a COP will take place in an indigenous and forest territory. A fundamental part of global biodiversity is concentrated in the Amazon, but it is also one of the largest CO₂ absorption basins. In recent decades, however, this territory has undergone a devastating deforestation and its delicate ecosystem will be at the center of the debate, symbolizing the larger challenge between conservation and development, climate justice and economic interests.
A central role in the decision to host COP30 in Brazil was played by President Lula, who strongly wanted to bring the climate summit back to his country.
A choice with a strong political meaning, especially if read in contrast to its predecessor. In 2019, the then president Jair Bolsonaro Canceled the hospitality already planned for the COP25, forcing the organizers to move the conference to Madrid in a hurry.
With the COP30 in Belém, Lula intends to score a Clear discontinuity: relaunch Brazil's climate commitment and position itself as leader of a new global front, more inclusive and representative.
But the choice of Brazil as headquarters is not only internal. The probable absence of United States from the negotiating table, under the renewed presidency of Donald Trump, in fact, opens up new diplomatic spaces.
In this scenario, COP30 could turn into a strategic stage for BRICS and for others Emerging countries I decided to make my voice heard. Climate leadership can no longer be the exclusive preserve of Western economies, but it is needed pluralism, a new poise between North and South of the world.
COP30 as a watershed for climate challenges
In addition to aspects of geopolitical importance, COP30 will also be a Technical deadline of great importance. By the Belém summit, all countries will have to present the new National Emission Reduction Plans (NDCs) Updated for 2035, as required by the five-year review cycle of the Paris Agreement.
This will be the first real test bench after the 2023 Global Stocktake. According to the Paris Agreement, in fact, every 5 years Global Stocktake (GST) is planned, a process for Evaluate collective progress in achieving the objectives set in 2015. The first Global Stocktake was held during COP28 in Dubai which highlighted how the world is not on the right track to achieve the goals set in Paris.
Many observers expect that in Brazil there will be a more clear discussion of Topics addressed so far only partially. Examples are the abandonment of fossil fuels, the future of voluntary carbon offsetting, climate justice for indigenous peoples and for vulnerable countries.
Probably, however, one of the crucial issues will be the redefinition of access methods and the transparency of climate finance, after the poor results obtained during the COP29.
In this scenario, the voice of businesses, cities and civil society will be decisive. COP30 can be a success only if it is taken as an opportunity to building cross-cutting alliances between public and private sectors and between the North and South of the world.
